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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing SDL Technology Co.,Ltd. (002658.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.72 - $72.63$35.45
Multi-Stage$10.15 - $11.10$10.62
Blended Fair Value$23.03
Current Price$7.88
Upside192.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.59%21.16%0.330.460.340.300.120.110.080.070.090.07
YoY Growth---28.17%33.96%13.70%150.29%9.62%37.68%12.15%-24.53%29.96%50.00%
Dividend Yield--4.48%6.46%4.14%4.21%0.89%1.82%0.91%0.65%0.61%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.6126.0115.60
Cash Retained (M)51.5651.5651.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.61-26.01-15.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.9525.5535.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)565.51565.51565.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate4.72%5.72%6.72%
Fair Value$15.72$35.45$72.63
Upside / Downside99.53%349.81%821.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208.05219.94232.51245.80259.85274.70282.94
Payout Ratio75.22%78.17%81.13%84.09%87.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.49171.93188.63206.68226.18247.23261.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate4.72%5.72%6.72%
Year 1 PV (M)159.65161.17162.70
Year 2 PV (M)162.64165.76168.92
Year 3 PV (M)165.47170.26175.14
Year 4 PV (M)168.14174.66181.36
Year 5 PV (M)170.66178.97187.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,915.415,154.645,403.09
Equity Value (M)5,741.986,005.466,278.80
Shares Outstanding (M)565.51565.51565.51
Fair Value$10.15$10.62$11.10
Upside / Downside28.85%34.76%40.90%

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