Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Kuang-Chi Technologies Co., Ltd. (002625.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.29 - $13.34$8.93
Multi-Stage$4.91 - $5.34$5.12
Blended Fair Value$7.03
Current Price$50.20
Upside-86.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS108.35%53.10%0.230.000.140.000.000.010.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%6,939.83%-60.70%-17.58%-8.51%3,203.99%-92.99%238.15%-74.87%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.00%0.82%0.01%0.02%0.08%0.05%0.00%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)720.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)500.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)219.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)144.1590.0954.06
Cash Retained (M)219.92219.92219.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-144.15-90.09-54.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.77129.83165.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,150.232,150.232,150.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.29$8.93$13.34
Upside / Downside-87.47%-82.22%-73.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)720.76767.61817.50870.64927.23987.501,017.13
Payout Ratio69.49%73.59%77.69%81.79%85.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)500.84564.88635.14712.14796.47888.75940.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)508.71513.53518.36
Year 2 PV (M)515.11524.92534.82
Year 3 PV (M)520.12535.06550.27
Year 4 PV (M)523.87544.02564.74
Year 5 PV (M)526.44551.87578.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,962.538,347.128,746.44
Equity Value (M)10,556.7911,016.5211,492.89
Shares Outstanding (M)2,150.232,150.232,150.23
Fair Value$4.91$5.12$5.34
Upside / Downside-90.22%-89.79%-89.35%

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