Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$94.04 - $203.54$190.74
Multi-Stage$31.00 - $33.92$32.43
Blended Fair Value$111.59
Current Price$11.59
Upside862.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS87.63%64.63%0.510.380.400.630.260.020.020.000.000.00
YoY Growth--32.02%-4.41%-36.19%144.52%1,081.13%-2.33%539.78%0.30%-0.06%0.40%
Dividend Yield--5.72%5.60%5.31%8.18%2.87%0.37%0.25%0.06%0.04%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,711.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,359.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,351.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)942.32588.95353.37
Cash Retained (M)2,351.672,351.672,351.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-942.32-588.95-353.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,409.351,762.721,998.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,603.684,603.684,603.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.380.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.380.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$94.04$190.74$203.54
Upside / Downside711.42%1,545.76%1,656.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,711.585,017.835,343.995,691.356,061.296,455.276,648.93
Payout Ratio50.09%58.07%66.05%74.04%82.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,359.912,913.863,529.844,213.594,971.325,809.756,150.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,712.402,738.112,763.82
Year 2 PV (M)3,058.633,116.893,175.69
Year 3 PV (M)3,398.683,496.243,595.65
Year 4 PV (M)3,732.633,876.174,023.82
Year 5 PV (M)4,060.564,256.694,460.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)125,744.12131,817.61138,123.55
Equity Value (M)142,707.02149,301.71156,142.86
Shares Outstanding (M)4,603.684,603.684,603.68
Fair Value$31.00$32.43$33.92
Upside / Downside167.46%179.82%192.64%

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