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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Changbao Steeltube Co.,Ltd (002478.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.42 - $30.52$19.53
Multi-Stage$17.90 - $19.65$18.76
Blended Fair Value$19.14
Current Price$5.71
Upside235.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.15%10.35%0.280.180.080.100.150.140.110.450.090.09
YoY Growth--56.04%126.96%-18.94%-33.08%5.39%24.67%-74.81%400.02%0.47%-16.18%
Dividend Yield--4.94%2.77%1.42%2.17%3.54%2.76%1.71%8.87%1.07%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)615.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)414.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)123.0676.9146.15
Cash Retained (M)414.83414.83414.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-123.06-76.91-46.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)291.77337.91368.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)902.35902.35902.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Fair Value$13.42$19.53$30.52
Upside / Downside135.09%241.99%434.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)615.31634.97655.27676.21697.82720.12741.72
Payout Ratio32.58%44.07%55.55%67.03%78.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.48279.81364.00453.28547.90648.11686.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)260.55263.10265.65
Year 2 PV (M)315.63321.83328.10
Year 3 PV (M)366.00376.85387.91
Year 4 PV (M)411.96428.32445.17
Year 5 PV (M)453.77476.41499.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,343.7915,059.4415,803.38
Equity Value (M)16,151.7016,925.9617,730.15
Shares Outstanding (M)902.35902.35902.35
Fair Value$17.90$18.76$19.65
Upside / Downside213.48%228.50%244.11%

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