Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.32 - $20.57$15.17
Multi-Stage$8.74 - $9.54$9.13
Blended Fair Value$12.15
Current Price$17.90
Upside-32.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-27.53%19.75%0.110.080.130.100.140.540.200.100.480.53
YoY Growth--27.66%-33.65%31.60%-32.99%-73.24%162.92%98.20%-78.53%-9.65%2,901.33%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.98%1.14%1.30%1.56%3.07%0.82%0.42%1.69%1.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,143.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)172.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)970.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)228.63142.8985.74
Cash Retained (M)970.35970.35970.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-228.63-142.89-85.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)741.73827.46884.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,498.861,498.861,498.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate11.19%11.19%11.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.32$15.17$20.57
Upside / Downside-36.76%-15.27%14.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,143.141,217.441,296.571,380.851,470.611,566.201,613.18
Payout Ratio15.11%30.09%45.07%60.05%75.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)172.78366.35584.35829.141,103.291,409.581,492.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.19%11.19%11.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)326.40329.49332.59
Year 2 PV (M)463.85472.69481.60
Year 3 PV (M)586.39603.22620.38
Year 4 PV (M)695.18721.92749.42
Year 5 PV (M)791.32829.54869.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,233.2210,727.4911,240.68
Equity Value (M)13,096.3613,684.3514,293.88
Shares Outstanding (M)1,498.861,498.861,498.86
Fair Value$8.74$9.13$9.54
Upside / Downside-51.19%-49.00%-46.72%

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