Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Harbin Gloria Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd (002437.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.34 - $0.44$0.40
Multi-Stage$0.61 - $0.68$0.65
Blended Fair Value$0.52
Current Price$3.09
Upside-83.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-44.15%-16.88%0.000.020.030.030.060.080.080.120.110.07
YoY Growth---78.64%-36.29%-3.06%-47.25%-21.91%-7.72%-29.27%3.50%64.83%160.03%
Dividend Yield--0.17%0.90%1.27%1.05%2.26%2.94%1.56%2.06%1.44%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)293.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)292.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.6136.6321.98
Cash Retained (M)292.37292.37292.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.61-36.63-21.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)233.76255.74270.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,259.752,259.752,259.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-15.55%-14.55%-13.55%
Fair Value$0.34$0.40$0.44
Upside / Downside-88.90%-87.21%-85.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)293.04250.41213.98182.85156.25133.52137.53
Payout Ratio0.23%18.18%36.14%54.09%72.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.6745.5377.3398.91112.57120.17127.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-15.55%-14.55%-13.55%
Year 1 PV (M)40.9141.3941.88
Year 2 PV (M)62.4263.9165.42
Year 3 PV (M)71.7474.3276.96
Year 4 PV (M)73.3776.9080.57
Year 5 PV (M)70.3774.6379.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,064.901,129.461,197.11
Equity Value (M)1,383.711,460.621,541.03
Shares Outstanding (M)2,259.752,259.752,259.75
Fair Value$0.61$0.65$0.68
Upside / Downside-80.18%-79.08%-77.93%

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