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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd. (002415.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.11 - $285.04$261.87
Multi-Stage$36.82 - $40.26$38.51
Blended Fair Value$150.19
Current Price$31.52
Upside376.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.12%24.05%0.940.700.920.810.710.610.500.410.310.18
YoY Growth--34.76%-24.18%13.74%14.03%16.77%21.41%23.74%32.65%72.70%62.07%
Dividend Yield--3.07%2.13%2.16%1.98%1.27%2.18%1.36%0.98%1.44%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,188.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,747.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,441.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,637.741,648.59989.15
Cash Retained (M)6,441.366,441.366,441.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,637.74-1,648.59-989.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,803.624,792.775,452.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,201.729,201.729,201.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.520.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.520.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.251.33
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.11$261.87$285.04
Upside / Downside154.16%730.80%804.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,188.7014,045.9714,958.9615,931.2916,966.8218,069.6718,611.76
Payout Ratio51.16%58.93%66.70%74.46%82.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,747.348,277.019,977.0311,863.0813,952.1616,262.7017,215.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,662.177,734.807,807.42
Year 2 PV (M)8,549.848,712.698,877.07
Year 3 PV (M)9,410.929,681.089,956.35
Year 4 PV (M)10,246.0110,640.0411,045.33
Year 5 PV (M)11,055.6511,589.6412,144.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)291,857.92305,954.77320,591.13
Equity Value (M)338,782.50354,313.01370,421.38
Shares Outstanding (M)9,201.729,201.729,201.72
Fair Value$36.82$38.51$40.26
Upside / Downside16.81%22.16%27.71%

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