Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (002384.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.50 - $143.30$55.41
Multi-Stage$15.33 - $16.76$16.03
Blended Fair Value$35.72
Current Price$71.50
Upside-50.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS54.96%58.93%0.460.110.200.100.050.050.030.010.000.05
YoY Growth--321.54%-45.10%99.54%112.86%-9.09%65.10%399.69%26.39%-89.57%957.94%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.72%0.65%0.53%0.25%0.25%0.16%0.04%0.03%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,241.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)351.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)890.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)248.31155.2093.12
Cash Retained (M)890.50890.50890.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-248.31-155.20-93.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)642.19735.30797.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,723.111,723.111,723.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.50$55.41$143.30
Upside / Downside-61.55%-22.50%100.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,241.571,322.271,408.211,499.751,597.231,701.051,752.08
Payout Ratio28.28%40.62%52.97%65.31%77.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)351.07537.12745.87979.491,240.331,530.951,620.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)493.98498.66503.34
Year 2 PV (M)630.87642.89655.02
Year 3 PV (M)761.94783.81806.10
Year 4 PV (M)887.35921.48956.58
Year 5 PV (M)1,007.301,055.951,106.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,631.2623,724.3624,859.29
Equity Value (M)26,412.7027,627.1528,886.80
Shares Outstanding (M)1,723.111,723.111,723.11
Fair Value$15.33$16.03$16.76
Upside / Downside-78.56%-77.58%-76.55%

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