Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Henan Senyuan Electric Co., Ltd. (002358.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.08 - $9.98$4.99
Multi-Stage$3.07 - $3.36$3.22
Blended Fair Value$4.10
Current Price$4.94
Upside-16.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.71%2.60%0.150.130.120.130.130.260.280.170.160.19
YoY Growth--17.89%4.15%-4.86%-4.84%-48.95%-6.92%63.60%7.15%-14.66%63.57%
Dividend Yield--2.62%3.10%2.49%4.19%3.68%4.41%1.89%1.00%0.75%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.3712.737.64
Cash Retained (M)25.6925.6925.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.37-12.73-7.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.3212.9618.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)870.00870.00870.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.51%4.51%5.51%
Fair Value$3.08$4.99$9.98
Upside / Downside-37.62%1.01%101.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.83106.42111.22116.24121.49126.97130.78
Payout Ratio74.78%77.82%80.87%83.91%86.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.1482.8289.9497.54105.64114.27120.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.51%4.51%5.51%
Year 1 PV (M)76.9077.6578.39
Year 2 PV (M)77.5679.0680.58
Year 3 PV (M)78.1080.3982.72
Year 4 PV (M)78.5581.6384.80
Year 5 PV (M)78.9182.7986.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,284.052,396.532,513.40
Equity Value (M)2,674.072,798.052,926.72
Shares Outstanding (M)870.00870.00870.00
Fair Value$3.07$3.22$3.36
Upside / Downside-37.78%-34.90%-31.90%

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