Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Hesheng Special Material Co., Ltd. (002290.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.40 - $6.30$5.33
Multi-Stage$6.70 - $7.38$7.03
Blended Fair Value$6.18
Current Price$40.88
Upside-84.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-30.08%-5.08%0.030.070.110.130.200.150.240.020.120.14
YoY Growth---62.24%-37.77%-17.96%-35.02%33.41%-36.13%1,084.22%-83.33%-12.61%222.38%
Dividend Yield--0.10%0.46%1.13%1.90%3.12%3.12%2.38%0.18%0.61%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)153.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.2419.5211.71
Cash Retained (M)153.65153.65153.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.24-19.52-11.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)122.41134.13141.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)245.37245.37245.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.550.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.550.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.40$5.33$6.30
Upside / Downside-89.24%-86.96%-84.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.18154.62153.07151.54150.02148.52152.98
Payout Ratio1.62%19.30%36.97%54.65%72.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.5329.8356.5982.81108.50133.67141.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)27.0127.2827.56
Year 2 PV (M)46.3847.3348.29
Year 3 PV (M)61.4463.3465.28
Year 4 PV (M)72.8875.9079.01
Year 5 PV (M)81.2885.5189.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,356.041,426.651,500.18
Equity Value (M)1,645.031,726.031,810.25
Shares Outstanding (M)245.37245.37245.37
Fair Value$6.70$7.03$7.38
Upside / Downside-83.60%-82.79%-81.95%

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