Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

CETC Cyberspace Security Technology Co., Ltd. (002268.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.37 - $6.95$4.74
Multi-Stage$2.64 - $2.89$2.76
Blended Fair Value$3.75
Current Price$17.43
Upside-78.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.71%40.18%0.060.060.050.020.020.020.050.060.050.01
YoY Growth--0.48%19.07%152.00%5.37%24.78%-69.55%-22.66%25.42%385.52%415.32%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.29%0.13%0.04%0.11%0.07%0.15%0.22%0.25%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)158.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.6219.7611.86
Cash Retained (M)107.48107.48107.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.62-19.76-11.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.8787.7295.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)845.61845.61845.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate5.15%6.15%7.15%
Fair Value$3.37$4.74$6.95
Upside / Downside-80.66%-72.81%-60.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)158.09167.81178.14189.10200.73213.08219.48
Payout Ratio32.01%43.61%55.21%66.80%78.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.6073.1898.34126.33157.38191.78203.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate5.15%6.15%7.15%
Year 1 PV (M)66.0166.6467.27
Year 2 PV (M)80.0281.5583.09
Year 3 PV (M)92.7295.3998.11
Year 4 PV (M)104.19108.21112.35
Year 5 PV (M)114.52120.07125.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,778.461,864.651,954.15
Equity Value (M)2,235.912,336.502,440.79
Shares Outstanding (M)845.61845.61845.61
Fair Value$2.64$2.76$2.89
Upside / Downside-84.83%-84.15%-83.44%

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