Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2.88 - $3.89 | $3.39 |
| Multi-Stage | $9.71 - $10.75 | $10.22 |
| Blended Fair Value | $6.81 | |
| Current Price | $8.76 | |
| Upside | -22.31% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -7.63% | 11.88% | 0.50 | 0.12 | 0.63 | 0.44 | 0.88 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 318.16% | -81.04% | 44.36% | -50.27% | 18.16% | 1.35% | 306.17% | 1.27% | -21.69% | 39.99% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.17% | 1.59% | 8.61% | 3.96% | 7.10% | 6.00% | 5.74% | 1.60% | 1.64% | 2.44% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 744.59 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 528.37 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 216.22 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 148.92 | 93.07 | 55.84 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 216.22 | 216.22 | 216.22 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -148.92 | -93.07 | -55.84 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 67.30 | 123.15 | 160.38 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,174.19 | 1,174.19 | 1,174.19 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.51 | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -9.63% | -8.63% | -7.63% |
| Fair Value | $2.88 | $3.39 | $3.89 |
| Upside / Downside | -67.17% | -61.26% | -55.63% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 744.59 | 680.36 | 621.68 | 568.05 | 519.05 | 474.28 | 488.51 |
| Payout Ratio | 70.96% | 74.77% | 78.58% | 82.38% | 86.19% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 528.37 | 508.70 | 488.49 | 467.99 | 447.38 | 426.85 | 451.87 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -9.63% | -8.63% | -7.63% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 473.24 | 478.48 | 483.71 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 422.77 | 432.18 | 441.69 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 376.79 | 389.44 | 402.36 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 335.10 | 350.18 | 365.76 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 297.43 | 314.26 | 331.83 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 9,495.64 | 10,032.75 | 10,593.89 |
| Equity Value (M) | 11,400.97 | 11,997.27 | 12,619.25 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,174.19 | 1,174.19 | 1,174.19 |
| Fair Value | $9.71 | $10.22 | $10.75 |
| Upside / Downside | 10.84% | 16.64% | 22.68% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 1.05% | $1.01 | 36.06% |
| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |