Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Jiangnan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (002226.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.03 - $60.49$56.69
Multi-Stage$8.97 - $9.81$9.38
Blended Fair Value$33.03
Current Price$6.88
Upside380.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.59%5.13%0.120.120.110.120.090.080.100.110.010.07
YoY Growth--5.96%6.26%-5.05%33.87%5.52%-17.86%-11.17%975.27%-85.41%-4.58%
Dividend Yield--2.20%2.48%2.07%1.80%1.73%2.47%2.00%2.47%0.15%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)805.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)319.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)486.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)161.12100.7060.42
Cash Retained (M)486.12486.12486.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-161.12-100.70-60.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)325.00385.42425.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,648.582,648.582,648.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.03$56.69$60.49
Upside / Downside278.38%723.95%779.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)805.59857.95913.72973.111,036.361,103.721,136.84
Payout Ratio39.66%49.73%59.79%69.86%79.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)319.47426.62546.35679.84828.38993.351,051.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)396.87400.63404.39
Year 2 PV (M)472.81481.82490.91
Year 3 PV (M)547.31563.02579.03
Year 4 PV (M)620.39644.25668.79
Year 5 PV (M)692.07725.50760.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,015.9622,031.0323,084.96
Equity Value (M)23,745.4224,846.2625,988.30
Shares Outstanding (M)2,648.582,648.582,648.58
Fair Value$8.97$9.38$9.81
Upside / Downside30.31%36.35%42.62%

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