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Definitive Analysis

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Sanquan Food Co., Ltd. (002216.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.78 - $123.61$115.85
Multi-Stage$19.47 - $21.30$20.37
Blended Fair Value$68.11
Current Price$10.75
Upside533.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS73.73%36.40%0.510.360.210.550.050.030.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth--42.64%75.09%-62.90%909.42%69.24%36.86%88.38%5.07%-13.33%-40.00%
Dividend Yield--4.64%2.93%1.25%3.68%0.27%0.18%0.31%0.18%0.15%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)543.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)272.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)270.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.7467.9640.78
Cash Retained (M)270.85270.85270.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.74-67.96-40.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)162.11202.89230.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)874.71874.71874.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$64.78$115.85$123.61
Upside / Downside502.60%977.63%1,049.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)543.69579.03616.67656.76699.44744.91767.26
Payout Ratio50.18%58.15%66.11%74.07%82.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)272.85336.69407.68486.48573.80670.42709.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)313.73316.71319.68
Year 2 PV (M)353.98360.72367.53
Year 3 PV (M)393.60404.90416.41
Year 4 PV (M)432.59449.23466.34
Year 5 PV (M)470.97493.72517.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,063.4215,790.9916,546.40
Equity Value (M)17,028.2917,816.2618,633.70
Shares Outstanding (M)874.71874.71874.71
Fair Value$19.47$20.37$21.30
Upside / Downside81.09%89.47%98.16%

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