Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co., Ltd. (002159.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.06 - $7.30$6.15
Multi-Stage$7.47 - $8.22$7.84
Blended Fair Value$7.00
Current Price$15.13
Upside-53.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.02%-3.87%0.240.080.190.270.450.530.440.520.360.32
YoY Growth--179.65%-54.63%-32.04%-38.65%-16.24%20.93%-16.00%44.47%13.03%-8.26%
Dividend Yield--1.59%0.53%1.17%2.51%3.69%5.19%1.90%2.87%1.26%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)124.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.9515.609.36
Cash Retained (M)123.69123.69123.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.95-15.60-9.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)98.74108.09114.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)177.37177.37177.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.610.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.610.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate-1.54%-0.54%0.46%
Fair Value$5.06$6.15$7.30
Upside / Downside-66.57%-59.35%-51.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)124.77124.10123.43122.77122.11121.46125.10
Payout Ratio0.86%18.69%36.52%54.35%72.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.0823.2045.0866.7288.13109.31115.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate-1.54%-0.54%0.46%
Year 1 PV (M)20.9921.2021.41
Year 2 PV (M)36.9037.6538.41
Year 3 PV (M)49.4150.9352.49
Year 4 PV (M)59.0561.4964.00
Year 5 PV (M)66.2769.7073.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,093.101,149.751,208.72
Equity Value (M)1,325.721,390.721,458.31
Shares Outstanding (M)177.37177.37177.37
Fair Value$7.47$7.84$8.22
Upside / Downside-50.60%-48.18%-45.66%

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