Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Guangdong Hongtu Technology (holdings) Co.,Ltd. (002101.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.26 - $106.36$99.67
Multi-Stage$39.74 - $43.64$41.65
Blended Fair Value$70.66
Current Price$13.54
Upside421.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.29%15.07%0.360.050.280.160.080.340.200.200.040.07
YoY Growth--618.75%-81.69%70.97%102.81%-76.65%67.47%-0.18%374.23%-39.86%-19.88%
Dividend Yield--2.79%0.37%1.37%1.25%1.18%4.57%2.14%1.76%0.29%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)358.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)298.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.6244.7626.86
Cash Retained (M)298.02298.02298.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.62-44.76-26.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)226.40253.26271.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)662.72662.72662.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate4.35%4.35%4.35%
Growth Rate4.40%5.40%6.40%
Fair Value$90.26$99.67$106.36
Upside / Downside566.61%636.09%685.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)358.11377.43397.80419.28441.90465.76479.73
Payout Ratio16.78%31.42%46.07%60.71%75.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.08118.60183.26254.55333.00419.18443.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.35%4.35%4.35%
Growth Rate4.40%5.40%6.40%
Year 1 PV (M)112.57113.65114.73
Year 2 PV (M)165.10168.28171.49
Year 3 PV (M)217.68224.00230.43
Year 4 PV (M)270.30280.81291.61
Year 5 PV (M)322.96338.73355.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,246.8826,479.4427,759.68
Equity Value (M)26,335.5027,604.9028,923.05
Shares Outstanding (M)662.72662.72662.72
Fair Value$39.74$41.65$43.64
Upside / Downside193.49%207.64%222.33%

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