Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co., Ltd. (002081.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.66 - $0.88$0.78
Multi-Stage$2.28 - $2.52$2.40
Blended Fair Value$1.59
Current Price$3.50
Upside-54.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.34%1.92%0.130.130.040.250.260.250.190.180.180.07
YoY Growth---2.05%233.96%-84.08%-1.94%1.34%30.56%5.65%4.40%135.64%-31.15%
Dividend Yield--3.97%3.92%0.77%4.62%2.73%3.10%1.57%1.42%1.59%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)457.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)320.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.4757.1734.30
Cash Retained (M)137.08137.08137.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.47-57.17-34.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.6079.91102.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,655.922,655.922,655.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-11.88%-10.88%-9.88%
Fair Value$0.66$0.78$0.88
Upside / Downside-81.05%-77.82%-74.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)457.37407.61363.26323.74288.51257.12264.84
Payout Ratio70.03%74.02%78.02%82.01%86.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)320.29301.73283.41265.50248.14231.41244.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-11.88%-10.88%-9.88%
Year 1 PV (M)280.34283.52286.71
Year 2 PV (M)244.66250.25255.89
Year 3 PV (M)212.96220.29227.79
Year 4 PV (M)184.93193.47202.30
Year 5 PV (M)160.24169.54179.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,960.355,248.265,549.40
Equity Value (M)6,043.486,365.346,701.36
Shares Outstanding (M)2,655.922,655.922,655.92
Fair Value$2.28$2.40$2.52
Upside / Downside-34.99%-31.52%-27.91%

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