Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ShanDongDenghai Seeds Co.,Ltd (002041.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.39 - $0.55$0.47
Multi-Stage$0.61 - $0.67$0.64
Blended Fair Value$0.55
Current Price$9.20
Upside-93.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS167.33%-0.80%0.040.000.040.040.060.000.050.060.000.14
YoY Growth--6,340.77%-98.41%2.86%-41.67%22,097.08%-99.48%-7.14%0.00%-100.00%250.00%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.01%0.19%0.15%0.36%0.00%0.77%0.51%0.00%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.416.503.90
Cash Retained (M)25.6625.6625.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.41-6.50-3.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.2519.1621.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)879.25879.25879.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.39$0.47$0.55
Upside / Downside-95.78%-94.91%-94.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.0451.5251.0050.4949.9849.4950.97
Payout Ratio50.69%58.55%66.41%74.28%82.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.3830.1633.8737.5041.0644.5447.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)27.1527.4327.71
Year 2 PV (M)27.4528.0128.58
Year 3 PV (M)27.3628.2129.07
Year 4 PV (M)26.9728.0929.24
Year 5 PV (M)26.3427.7129.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)400.85421.72443.46
Equity Value (M)536.13561.18587.20
Shares Outstanding (M)879.25879.25879.25
Fair Value$0.61$0.64$0.67
Upside / Downside-93.37%-93.06%-92.74%

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