Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Link Science and Technology Co.,Ltd. (001207.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.12 - $297.64$278.93
Multi-Stage$43.77 - $47.93$45.81
Blended Fair Value$162.37
Current Price$22.91
Upside608.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720132012
DPS30.12%28.91%0.600.180.450.020.040.160.130.150.080.08
YoY Growth--227.84%-59.40%2,856.47%-56.71%-78.10%24.40%-10.58%88.68%-5.54%71.40%
Dividend Yield--2.75%1.22%2.91%0.08%0.17%0.79%0.00%0.00%0.38%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)302.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)217.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.5337.8322.70
Cash Retained (M)217.83217.83217.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.53-37.83-22.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)157.31180.00195.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.22202.22202.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.890.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.890.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.201.311.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$128.12$278.93$297.64
Upside / Downside459.25%1,117.50%1,199.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)302.64322.31343.26365.57389.34414.64427.08
Payout Ratio28.02%40.42%52.81%65.21%77.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.81130.27181.29238.39302.14373.18395.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)121.19122.34123.49
Year 2 PV (M)156.89159.88162.89
Year 3 PV (M)191.92197.43203.04
Year 4 PV (M)226.28234.99243.94
Year 5 PV (M)260.00272.56285.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,895.838,277.208,673.17
Equity Value (M)8,852.119,264.399,692.12
Shares Outstanding (M)202.22202.22202.22
Fair Value$43.77$45.81$47.93
Upside / Downside91.07%99.97%109.21%

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