Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

COFCO Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (000930.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.28 - $0.39$0.33
Multi-Stage$0.98 - $1.09$1.03
Blended Fair Value$0.68
Current Price$5.95
Upside-88.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.76%-5.59%0.050.630.300.150.090.110.100.420.070.10
YoY Growth---92.03%111.32%100.02%68.75%-16.15%2.34%-75.32%490.82%-27.32%8.79%
Dividend Yield--0.93%10.51%3.52%1.56%0.98%1.34%1.16%3.13%0.54%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.9411.847.10
Cash Retained (M)26.5926.5926.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.94-11.84-7.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.6414.7519.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,858.821,858.821,858.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.05
WACC / Discount Rate5.92%5.92%5.92%
Growth Rate-7.59%-6.59%-5.59%
Fair Value$0.28$0.33$0.39
Upside / Downside-95.31%-94.40%-93.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94.7188.4782.6577.2072.1267.3769.39
Payout Ratio71.93%75.54%79.16%82.77%86.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.1266.8465.4263.9062.3060.6364.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.92%5.92%5.92%
Growth Rate-7.59%-6.59%-5.59%
Year 1 PV (M)62.4363.1063.78
Year 2 PV (M)57.0758.3159.57
Year 3 PV (M)52.0753.7855.52
Year 4 PV (M)47.4149.5051.65
Year 5 PV (M)43.1045.4847.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,563.131,649.561,739.76
Equity Value (M)1,825.211,919.732,018.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,858.821,858.821,858.82
Fair Value$0.98$1.03$1.09
Upside / Downside-83.50%-82.64%-81.75%

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