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Definitive Analysis

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HBIS Resources Co., Ltd. (000923.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.20 - $160.34$150.26
Multi-Stage$21.59 - $23.60$22.57
Blended Fair Value$86.42
Current Price$17.91
Upside382.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS126.79%35.14%0.600.300.300.110.260.011.160.110.140.02
YoY Growth--100.00%0.08%176.37%-57.83%2,471.89%-99.14%999.97%-25.28%505.16%-21.21%
Dividend Yield--3.81%1.78%2.06%0.75%1.11%0.08%6.59%0.47%0.56%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)526.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)326.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)199.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)105.2565.7839.47
Cash Retained (M)199.88199.88199.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-105.25-65.78-39.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)94.63134.10160.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)652.72652.72652.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.210.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.210.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.20$150.26$160.34
Upside / Downside174.73%738.98%795.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)526.24560.45596.88635.67676.99721.00742.63
Payout Ratio62.02%67.61%73.21%78.81%84.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)326.36378.94436.98500.96571.41648.90686.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)351.21354.54357.87
Year 2 PV (M)375.36382.51389.73
Year 3 PV (M)398.83410.27421.94
Year 4 PV (M)421.62437.84454.51
Year 5 PV (M)443.76465.19487.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,098.3612,682.7213,289.44
Equity Value (M)14,089.1414,733.0715,400.93
Shares Outstanding (M)652.72652.72652.72
Fair Value$21.59$22.57$23.60
Upside / Downside20.52%26.03%31.74%

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