Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changjiang Securities Company Limited (000783.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.65 - $129.52$49.37
Multi-Stage$16.73 - $18.31$17.50
Blended Fair Value$33.44
Current Price$8.30
Upside302.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.74%12.51%0.390.370.550.410.370.180.450.360.470.20
YoY Growth--6.10%-32.94%34.03%11.38%104.15%-60.25%26.66%-23.52%132.74%67.22%
Dividend Yield--6.13%6.50%9.81%6.54%5.18%2.81%5.86%4.92%4.76%1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,773.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,659.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,114.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)754.73471.71283.02
Cash Retained (M)2,114.122,114.122,114.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-754.73-471.71-283.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,359.381,642.411,831.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,748.415,748.415,748.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.290.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.290.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.570.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate4.64%5.64%6.64%
Fair Value$24.65$49.37$129.52
Upside / Downside197.05%494.88%1,460.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,773.663,986.664,211.674,449.394,700.534,965.845,114.81
Payout Ratio43.98%53.18%62.39%71.59%80.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,659.542,120.172,627.503,185.353,797.814,469.254,731.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate4.64%5.64%6.64%
Year 1 PV (M)1,965.041,983.812,002.59
Year 2 PV (M)2,257.062,300.412,344.16
Year 3 PV (M)2,536.052,609.462,684.26
Year 4 PV (M)2,802.432,911.093,022.89
Year 5 PV (M)3,056.583,205.453,360.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)83,539.4487,608.0591,833.67
Equity Value (M)96,156.61100,618.28105,247.64
Shares Outstanding (M)5,748.415,748.415,748.41
Fair Value$16.73$17.50$18.31
Upside / Downside101.54%110.89%120.59%

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