Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chongqing Yukaifa Co., Ltd (000514.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.54 - $0.74$0.64
Multi-Stage$2.49 - $2.77$2.63
Blended Fair Value$1.63
Current Price$5.52
Upside-70.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.42%-7.48%0.100.090.150.150.110.100.120.140.120.21
YoY Growth--9.89%-38.75%-0.08%36.95%6.33%-17.42%-10.09%12.04%-41.88%-2.95%
Dividend Yield--2.51%2.61%3.62%2.27%3.04%2.38%2.41%2.05%1.24%2.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.6011.636.98
Cash Retained (M)41.6641.6641.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.60-11.63-6.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.0630.0434.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)843.77843.77843.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate-9.48%-8.48%-7.48%
Fair Value$0.54$0.64$0.74
Upside / Downside-90.17%-88.33%-86.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93.0185.1277.9071.2965.2459.7161.50
Payout Ratio55.20%62.16%69.12%76.08%83.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.3452.9153.8554.2454.1853.7456.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate-9.48%-8.48%-7.48%
Year 1 PV (M)49.7450.2950.84
Year 2 PV (M)47.5848.6349.70
Year 3 PV (M)45.0546.5648.10
Year 4 PV (M)42.3044.2046.16
Year 5 PV (M)39.4341.6643.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,878.101,984.162,094.96
Equity Value (M)2,102.202,215.502,333.75
Shares Outstanding (M)843.77843.77843.77
Fair Value$2.49$2.63$2.77
Upside / Downside-54.87%-52.43%-49.89%

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