Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shandong Shengli Co., Ltd. (000407.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.29 - $1.97$1.61
Multi-Stage$2.75 - $3.03$2.89
Blended Fair Value$2.25
Current Price$3.49
Upside-35.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.84%0.00%0.160.150.180.160.160.120.130.060.080.13
YoY Growth--6.78%-14.59%8.13%5.72%33.55%-7.97%94.66%-22.13%-35.89%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.01%4.64%4.71%4.24%3.73%3.23%2.59%1.09%0.75%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.5215.959.57
Cash Retained (M)76.4076.4076.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.52-15.95-9.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.8860.4566.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)879.86879.86879.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.29$1.61$1.97
Upside / Downside-62.97%-53.84%-43.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.59126.32125.05123.80122.56121.34124.98
Payout Ratio40.12%50.10%60.07%70.05%80.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.1963.2875.1286.7298.08109.20115.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)58.6559.2559.85
Year 2 PV (M)64.5465.8667.20
Year 3 PV (M)69.0671.1973.37
Year 4 PV (M)72.3975.3978.49
Year 5 PV (M)74.7178.6082.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,082.322,190.752,303.66
Equity Value (M)2,421.672,541.052,665.21
Shares Outstanding (M)879.86879.86879.86
Fair Value$2.75$2.89$3.03
Upside / Downside-21.14%-17.25%-13.21%

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