Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Lotte Non - Life Insurance Co., Ltd. (000400.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,217.19 - $1,910.70$1,535.60
Multi-Stage$2,900.88 - $3,200.00$3,047.47
Blended Fair Value$2,291.54
Current Price$1,963.00
Upside16.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.56%0.00%10.0810.0810.088.838.888.888.574.290.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%14.19%-0.61%0.00%3.57%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.32%0.68%0.46%0.48%0.68%0.31%0.13%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38,800.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,128.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)35,672.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,760.044,850.032,910.02
Cash Retained (M)35,672.2235,672.2235,672.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,760.04-4,850.03-2,910.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)27,912.1830,822.1932,762.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)310.39310.39310.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share89.9399.30105.55
LTM Dividend per Share10.0810.0810.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share89.9399.30105.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.01109.38115.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.05%6.05%6.05%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,217.19$1,535.60$1,910.70
Upside / Downside-37.99%-21.77%-2.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38,800.2238,412.2238,028.1037,647.8137,271.3436,898.6238,005.58
Payout Ratio8.06%24.45%40.84%57.22%73.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,128.009,391.5815,529.5721,543.8627,436.3133,208.7635,155.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.05%6.05%6.05%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8,766.208,855.658,945.10
Year 2 PV (M)13,530.2413,807.7714,088.13
Year 3 PV (M)17,520.3518,062.1718,615.06
Year 4 PV (M)20,826.5821,689.7422,579.47
Year 5 PV (M)23,529.7924,755.0426,030.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)816,217.93858,720.29902,975.05
Equity Value (M)900,391.08945,890.67993,233.61
Shares Outstanding (M)310.39310.39310.39
Fair Value$2,900.88$3,047.47$3,200.00
Upside / Downside47.78%55.25%63.02%

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