Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co., Ltd. (000019.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.09 - $7.55$5.51
Multi-Stage$7.13 - $7.83$7.48
Blended Fair Value$6.50
Current Price$6.53
Upside-0.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.69%0.00%0.220.280.300.200.240.140.020.020.000.00
YoY Growth---20.51%-5.10%48.42%-18.00%73.00%639.20%-2.65%2,634.13%419.43%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.49%4.20%3.81%2.35%3.33%1.80%0.22%0.16%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)324.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)201.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)122.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.8540.5324.32
Cash Retained (M)122.87122.87122.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.85-40.53-24.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.0282.3498.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.851,152.851,152.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Fair Value$4.09$5.51$7.55
Upside / Downside-37.35%-15.56%15.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)324.27330.01335.84341.77347.81353.96364.58
Payout Ratio62.11%67.69%73.27%78.84%84.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)201.40223.37246.05269.47293.63318.57337.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Year 1 PV (M)208.05210.11212.18
Year 2 PV (M)213.45217.71222.01
Year 3 PV (M)217.73224.28230.95
Year 4 PV (M)220.98229.88239.05
Year 5 PV (M)223.30234.60246.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,142.007,503.487,879.46
Equity Value (M)8,225.518,620.079,030.01
Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.851,152.851,152.85
Fair Value$7.13$7.48$7.83
Upside / Downside9.26%14.51%19.95%

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