Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co., Ltd. (000007.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.03 - $3.43$2.64
Multi-Stage$2.23 - $2.44$2.33
Blended Fair Value$2.49
Current Price$7.29
Upside-65.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-17.85%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--85.83%58.15%475.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-45.69%-86.03%
Dividend Yield--0.06%0.04%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.337.084.25
Cash Retained (M)55.4755.4755.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.33-7.08-4.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.1448.3951.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)346.99346.99346.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate2.49%3.49%4.49%
Fair Value$2.03$2.64$3.43
Upside / Downside-72.19%-63.80%-52.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.6658.6460.6862.8064.9967.2669.28
Payout Ratio2.10%19.68%37.26%54.84%72.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.1911.5422.6134.4447.0760.5364.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate2.49%3.49%4.49%
Year 1 PV (M)10.4810.5810.68
Year 2 PV (M)18.6319.0019.37
Year 3 PV (M)25.7726.5327.30
Year 4 PV (M)31.9733.2334.54
Year 5 PV (M)37.3239.1841.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)648.56680.83714.36
Equity Value (M)772.73809.35847.36
Shares Outstanding (M)346.99346.99346.99
Fair Value$2.23$2.33$2.44
Upside / Downside-69.45%-68.00%-66.50%

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