Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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TOA Paint (Thailand) Public Company Limited (TOA.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.36 - $36.55$26.32
Multi-Stage$30.85 - $33.87$32.34
Blended Fair Value$29.33
Current Price$13.60
Upside115.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.45%-1.30%0.630.590.450.590.550.420.360.763.290.76
YoY Growth--6.04%31.82%-23.12%5.98%31.71%17.14%-52.59%-77.04%331.55%6.33%
Dividend Yield--5.57%2.87%1.45%1.97%1.74%1.33%1.14%1.91%13.72%3.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,523.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,168.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,355.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)504.66315.41189.25
Cash Retained (M)1,355.231,355.231,355.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-504.66-315.41-189.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)850.571,039.821,165.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,981.031,981.031,981.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.520.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.520.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.111.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Fair Value$19.36$26.32$36.55
Upside / Downside42.33%93.56%168.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,523.302,577.832,633.532,690.432,748.572,807.962,892.20
Payout Ratio46.29%55.03%63.77%72.52%81.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,168.071,418.661,679.531,951.012,233.442,527.172,675.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Year 1 PV (M)1,319.201,332.251,345.29
Year 2 PV (M)1,452.301,481.161,510.29
Year 3 PV (M)1,568.791,615.771,663.68
Year 4 PV (M)1,669.991,737.011,806.02
Year 5 PV (M)1,757.141,845.731,937.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,357.0056,046.8958,844.19
Equity Value (M)61,124.4264,058.7967,107.32
Shares Outstanding (M)1,981.031,981.031,981.03
Fair Value$30.85$32.34$33.87
Upside / Downside126.87%137.77%149.08%

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