Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Teck Resources Limited (TECK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.43 - $30.39$25.18
Multi-Stage$34.43 - $37.86$36.11
Blended Fair Value$30.65
Current Price$61.09
Upside-49.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.87%-0.08%1.030.531.060.210.210.220.340.690.120.75
YoY Growth--93.96%-50.19%401.89%0.00%-4.50%-35.47%-50.00%493.10%-84.49%-27.80%
Dividend Yield--1.96%0.85%2.15%0.42%0.88%2.08%1.09%2.09%0.40%7.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,256.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)248.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,008.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)251.20157.0094.20
Cash Retained (M)1,008.001,008.001,008.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-251.20-157.00-94.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)756.80851.00913.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)501.08501.08501.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.511.701.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.511.701.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.012.192.32
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate-1.47%-0.47%0.53%
Fair Value$20.43$25.18$30.39
Upside / Downside-66.55%-58.78%-50.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,256.001,250.091,244.201,238.341,232.511,226.711,263.51
Payout Ratio19.75%33.80%47.85%61.90%75.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)248.00422.48595.31766.51936.081,104.041,168.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate-1.47%-0.47%0.53%
Year 1 PV (M)386.55390.47394.39
Year 2 PV (M)498.35508.52518.79
Year 3 PV (M)587.09605.14623.57
Year 4 PV (M)655.98683.02710.89
Year 5 PV (M)707.88744.54782.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,416.2815,162.8515,940.04
Equity Value (M)17,252.1218,094.5418,970.38
Shares Outstanding (M)501.08501.08501.08
Fair Value$34.43$36.11$37.86
Upside / Downside-43.64%-40.89%-38.03%

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