Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $117.05 - $291.13 | $175.41 |
| Multi-Stage | $136.36 - $149.36 | $142.74 |
| Blended Fair Value | $159.07 | |
| Current Price | $83.56 | |
| Upside | 90.37% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 8.28% | 8.27% | 3.43 | 2.48 | 2.92 | 2.50 | 1.87 | 2.30 | 2.14 | 2.02 | 1.88 | 1.61 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 38.17% | -15.02% | 17.02% | 33.77% | -19.01% | 7.42% | 6.23% | 7.54% | 16.61% | 3.95% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.16% | 3.40% | 4.63% | 3.58% | 2.94% | 5.11% | 4.10% | 3.81% | 3.86% | 3.84% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 3,094.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,029.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,065.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 618.80 | 386.75 | 232.05 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,065.00 | 1,065.00 | 1,065.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -618.80 | -386.75 | -232.05 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 446.20 | 678.25 | 832.95 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 572.25 | 572.25 | 572.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.78 | 1.19 | 1.46 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.55 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.78 | 1.19 | 1.46 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.33 | 4.73 | 5.00 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.67% | 6.67% | 6.67% |
| Growth Rate | 2.87% | 3.87% | 4.87% |
| Fair Value | $117.05 | $175.41 | $291.13 |
| Upside / Downside | 40.08% | 109.92% | 248.41% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 3,094.00 | 3,213.79 | 3,338.23 | 3,467.47 | 3,601.73 | 3,741.18 | 3,853.42 |
| Payout Ratio | 65.58% | 70.46% | 75.35% | 80.23% | 85.12% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,029.00 | 2,264.53 | 2,515.26 | 2,782.00 | 3,065.64 | 3,367.06 | 3,564.41 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.67% | 6.67% | 6.67% |
| Growth Rate | 2.87% | 3.87% | 4.87% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,102.43 | 2,122.86 | 2,143.30 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,168.04 | 2,210.40 | 2,253.16 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2,226.31 | 2,291.87 | 2,358.70 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,277.68 | 2,367.54 | 2,460.04 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,322.55 | 2,437.65 | 2,557.27 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 66,933.12 | 70,250.22 | 73,697.54 |
| Equity Value (M) | 78,030.13 | 81,680.54 | 85,470.02 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 572.25 | 572.25 | 572.25 |
| Fair Value | $136.36 | $142.74 | $149.36 |
| Upside / Downside | 63.18% | 70.82% | 78.74% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
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| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
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| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
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| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
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