Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Siri Prime Office Property Fund (SIRIP.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.72 - $8.78$7.14
Multi-Stage$12.56 - $13.82$13.18
Blended Fair Value$10.16
Current Price$8.15
Upside24.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.08%0.00%0.230.200.240.360.530.610.580.580.610.00
YoY Growth--12.50%-15.29%-34.42%-32.51%-12.56%5.88%-0.67%-5.48%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.88%2.63%2.88%4.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.3913.378.02
Cash Retained (M)59.3459.3459.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.39-13.37-8.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.9545.9751.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)170.00170.00170.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.72$7.14$8.78
Upside / Downside-29.87%-12.36%7.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.94105.87104.81103.76102.72101.70104.75
Payout Ratio44.51%53.61%62.71%71.80%80.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.6056.7665.7274.5183.1191.5396.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)52.6953.2353.76
Year 2 PV (M)56.6457.8158.98
Year 3 PV (M)59.6161.4663.34
Year 4 PV (M)61.7364.2966.93
Year 5 PV (M)63.1266.4069.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,841.391,937.272,037.11
Equity Value (M)2,135.182,240.452,349.94
Shares Outstanding (M)170.00170.00170.00
Fair Value$12.56$13.18$13.82
Upside / Downside54.11%61.71%69.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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