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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo SBF S.A. (SBFG3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.02 - $280.10$194.80
Multi-Stage$34.34 - $37.56$35.92
Blended Fair Value$115.36
Current Price$13.00
Upside787.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.180.140.120.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--27.80%15.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.51%1.05%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)335.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)208.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.0841.9325.16
Cash Retained (M)208.06208.06208.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.08-41.93-25.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)140.98166.13182.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)238.15238.15238.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.700.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.700.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$71.02$194.80$280.10
Upside / Downside446.31%1,398.49%2,054.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)335.42357.22380.44405.17431.50459.55473.34
Payout Ratio37.97%48.38%58.78%69.19%79.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.36172.81223.63280.33343.45413.60437.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)159.73161.24162.76
Year 2 PV (M)191.05194.69198.37
Year 3 PV (M)221.36227.72234.19
Year 4 PV (M)250.68260.32270.24
Year 5 PV (M)279.03292.51306.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,077.177,419.007,773.92
Equity Value (M)8,179.038,555.488,945.97
Shares Outstanding (M)238.15238.15238.15
Fair Value$34.34$35.92$37.56
Upside / Downside164.18%176.34%188.95%

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