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Definitive Analysis

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Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.20 - $117.70$81.21
Multi-Stage$52.36 - $57.29$54.78
Blended Fair Value$67.99
Current Price$53.47
Upside27.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.82%0.00%0.680.620.540.500.270.220.110.000.000.00
YoY Growth--9.74%13.52%8.51%82.81%22.62%96.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.27%1.17%1.50%1.48%0.83%1.58%0.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)274.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)216.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.8434.2820.57
Cash Retained (M)216.20216.20216.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.84-34.28-20.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)161.36181.92195.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.8681.8681.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.972.222.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.972.222.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.682.933.10
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Fair Value$58.20$81.21$117.70
Upside / Downside8.84%51.88%120.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)274.20288.14302.78318.16334.33351.32361.86
Payout Ratio21.15%34.92%48.69%62.46%76.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.01100.63147.43198.73254.86316.18334.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Year 1 PV (M)91.5492.4293.30
Year 2 PV (M)122.02124.38126.75
Year 3 PV (M)149.63153.99158.43
Year 4 PV (M)174.58181.39188.39
Year 5 PV (M)197.04206.69216.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,551.123,725.023,905.67
Equity Value (M)4,285.944,483.894,689.26
Shares Outstanding (M)81.8681.8681.86
Fair Value$52.36$54.78$57.29
Upside / Downside-2.08%2.44%7.14%

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