Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk (PJAA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$474.10 - $655.69$565.39
Multi-Stage$1,309.90 - $1,449.11$1,378.06
Blended Fair Value$971.73
Current Price$474.00
Upside105.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.60%-4.99%32.0029.000.001.800.0053.0052.0031.0069.0065.00
YoY Growth--10.34%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%1.92%67.74%-55.07%6.15%21.72%
Dividend Yield--6.34%3.28%0.00%0.34%0.00%12.16%3.82%2.21%3.92%3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)139,660.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38,400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)101,260.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27,932.0017,457.5010,474.50
Cash Retained (M)101,260.00101,260.00101,260.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-27,932.00-17,457.50-10,474.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)73,328.0083,802.5090,785.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share45.8352.3856.74
LTM Dividend per Share24.0024.0024.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share45.8352.3856.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend69.8376.3880.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-6.99%-5.99%-4.99%
Fair Value$474.10$565.39$655.69
Upside / Downside0.02%19.28%38.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)139,660.00131,291.79123,424.98116,029.54109,077.23102,541.49105,617.73
Payout Ratio27.50%40.00%52.50%65.00%77.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38,400.0052,511.8364,794.6775,417.0484,533.8492,287.3497,696.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-6.99%-5.99%-4.99%
Year 1 PV (M)48,687.6249,211.0949,734.57
Year 2 PV (M)55,700.8856,905.0958,122.17
Year 3 PV (M)60,110.9762,070.7864,072.74
Year 4 PV (M)62,470.6765,200.9968,019.84
Year 5 PV (M)63,233.7866,707.0470,331.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,805,630.171,904,808.432,008,297.65
Equity Value (M)2,095,834.102,204,903.422,318,578.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
Fair Value$1,309.90$1,378.06$1,449.11
Upside / Downside176.35%190.73%205.72%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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