Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Patria Investments Limited (PAX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.38 - $135.67$101.34
Multi-Stage$17.20 - $18.80$17.99
Blended Fair Value$59.66
Current Price$14.60
Upside308.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS23.33%0.00%0.850.930.660.770.390.300.240.000.000.00
YoY Growth---8.79%40.47%-13.74%96.60%31.32%22.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.53%6.36%4.48%4.32%2.25%1.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.2513.287.97
Cash Retained (M)35.9635.9635.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.25-13.28-7.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.7122.6827.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)155.78155.78155.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.38$101.34$135.67
Upside / Downside142.34%594.09%829.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.27113.18120.53128.37136.71145.60149.97
Payout Ratio66.16%70.93%75.70%80.46%85.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.3180.2791.24103.29116.52131.04138.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)74.2374.9375.64
Year 2 PV (M)78.0279.5081.00
Year 3 PV (M)81.6784.0286.40
Year 4 PV (M)85.2088.4791.84
Year 5 PV (M)88.6092.8797.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,272.372,382.132,496.09
Equity Value (M)2,680.082,801.932,928.29
Shares Outstanding (M)155.78155.78155.78
Fair Value$17.20$17.99$18.80
Upside / Downside17.84%23.20%28.75%

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