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Definitive Analysis

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Groupe Partouche S.A. (PARP.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.90 - $20.86$17.20
Multi-Stage$27.32 - $30.05$28.66
Blended Fair Value$22.93
Current Price$18.15
Upside26.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.320.320.000.000.000.000.000.100.000.00
YoY Growth--0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.52%1.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.31%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.191.991.20
Cash Retained (M)9.789.789.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.19-1.99-1.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.607.798.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.629.629.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.810.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.810.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.90$17.20$20.86
Upside / Downside-23.42%-5.25%14.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.9415.7815.6215.4615.3115.1615.61
Payout Ratio38.61%48.89%59.16%69.44%79.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.157.719.2410.7412.2013.6414.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)7.117.197.26
Year 2 PV (M)7.868.028.18
Year 3 PV (M)8.428.688.95
Year 4 PV (M)8.829.199.57
Year 5 PV (M)9.109.5710.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)221.45232.98244.99
Equity Value (M)262.76275.63289.00
Shares Outstanding (M)9.629.629.62
Fair Value$27.32$28.66$30.05
Upside / Downside50.55%57.92%65.59%

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