Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Open Text Corporation (OTEX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.74 - $374.77$190.43
Multi-Stage$43.87 - $47.94$45.87
Blended Fair Value$118.15
Current Price$29.20
Upside304.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.55%11.97%1.041.031.000.910.810.730.650.560.460.38
YoY Growth--1.56%3.01%9.21%12.81%11.63%11.76%15.96%20.76%21.48%13.28%
Dividend Yield--3.57%3.09%2.84%3.46%1.66%1.72%1.59%1.48%1.44%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)490.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)270.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)219.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.0461.2736.76
Cash Retained (M)219.23219.23219.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.04-61.27-36.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)121.19157.95182.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)260.13260.13260.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.610.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.610.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.511.651.74
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$82.74$190.43$374.77
Upside / Downside183.37%552.17%1,183.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)490.20522.06556.00592.13630.62671.61691.76
Payout Ratio55.28%62.22%69.17%76.11%83.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)270.97324.84384.56450.68523.77604.45639.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)299.56302.40305.23
Year 2 PV (M)327.03333.26339.55
Year 3 PV (M)353.42363.57373.91
Year 4 PV (M)378.77393.34408.32
Year 5 PV (M)403.10422.56442.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,649.6210,115.7010,599.62
Equity Value (M)11,411.4911,930.8212,469.40
Shares Outstanding (M)260.13260.13260.13
Fair Value$43.87$45.87$47.94
Upside / Downside50.24%57.07%64.16%

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