Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. (OMAB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$720.91 - $2,735.51$2,100.07
Multi-Stage$352.59 - $385.02$368.51
Blended Fair Value$1,234.29
Current Price$246.80
Upside400.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.43%0.00%10.939.6817.135.130.004.144.164.083.550.00
YoY Growth--12.91%-43.50%234.17%0.00%-100.00%-0.44%1.95%14.83%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.44%5.93%8.51%3.44%0.00%5.16%3.77%4.57%3.50%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,311.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,353.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)958.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,062.35663.97398.38
Cash Retained (M)958.21958.21958.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,062.35-663.97-398.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)-104.14294.24559.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)386.17386.17386.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.270.761.45
LTM Dividend per Share11.2711.2711.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.270.761.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.0012.0412.72
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$720.91$2,100.07$2,735.51
Upside / Downside192.10%750.92%1,008.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,311.745,657.006,024.706,416.316,833.377,277.547,495.87
Payout Ratio81.96%83.57%85.18%86.78%88.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,353.534,727.475,131.625,568.356,040.166,549.796,933.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,372.204,413.644,455.08
Year 2 PV (M)4,389.324,472.934,557.32
Year 3 PV (M)4,404.944,531.394,660.24
Year 4 PV (M)4,419.104,589.054,763.85
Year 5 PV (M)4,431.844,645.904,868.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)114,140.85119,653.90125,377.94
Equity Value (M)136,158.26142,306.81148,682.59
Shares Outstanding (M)386.17386.17386.17
Fair Value$352.59$368.51$385.02
Upside / Downside42.86%49.31%56.00%

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