Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Oishi Group Public Company Limited (OISHI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.62 - $32.52$27.45
Multi-Stage$57.02 - $62.86$59.88
Blended Fair Value$43.67
Current Price$58.75
Upside-25.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172015201420132012
DPS-4.36%-4.59%1.001.241.971.511.611.250.800.780.451.15
YoY Growth---19.35%-36.73%30.67%-6.25%28.00%56.25%3.23%72.22%-60.87%-28.13%
Dividend Yield--2.16%2.86%4.92%2.98%4.37%1.90%2.04%2.02%1.06%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,234.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)600.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)634.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)246.85154.2892.57
Cash Retained (M)634.23634.23634.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-246.85-154.28-92.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)387.38479.95541.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.62373.62373.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.041.281.45
LTM Dividend per Share1.611.611.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.041.281.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.642.893.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-4.43%-3.43%-2.43%
Fair Value$22.62$27.45$32.52
Upside / Downside-61.50%-53.27%-44.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,234.231,191.921,151.071,111.621,073.511,036.721,067.82
Payout Ratio48.61%56.89%65.17%73.45%81.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)600.00678.09750.13816.43877.30933.05987.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-4.43%-3.43%-2.43%
Year 1 PV (M)628.70635.28641.85
Year 2 PV (M)644.82658.39672.09
Year 3 PV (M)650.69671.33692.40
Year 4 PV (M)648.27675.83704.26
Year 5 PV (M)639.24673.39708.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,093.1219,059.7020,067.15
Equity Value (M)21,304.8422,373.9123,486.75
Shares Outstanding (M)373.62373.62373.62
Fair Value$57.02$59.88$62.86
Upside / Downside-2.94%1.93%7.00%

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