Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Northern 3 VCT PLC (NTN.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.90 - $1.52$1.17
Multi-Stage$0.98 - $1.06$1.02
Blended Fair Value$1.10
Current Price$0.84
Upside30.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.35%5.35%0.040.040.050.070.030.030.040.060.050.07
YoY Growth--2.82%-4.12%-36.63%123.28%17.31%-23.33%-36.47%12.34%-33.12%181.14%
Dividend Yield--5.31%5.14%5.36%7.56%3.52%3.90%4.14%6.26%4.94%7.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.001.250.75
Cash Retained (M)2.392.392.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.00-1.25-0.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.391.141.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.83137.83137.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Fair Value$0.90$1.17$1.52
Upside / Downside7.32%39.49%80.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.9910.4310.8811.3611.8512.3612.74
Payout Ratio76.12%78.90%81.67%84.45%87.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.618.238.899.5910.3411.1311.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Year 1 PV (M)7.417.487.55
Year 2 PV (M)7.217.357.49
Year 3 PV (M)7.007.207.41
Year 4 PV (M)6.797.067.33
Year 5 PV (M)6.596.917.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)99.59104.50109.60
Equity Value (M)134.58140.50146.63
Shares Outstanding (M)137.83137.83137.83
Fair Value$0.98$1.02$1.06
Upside / Downside16.24%21.36%26.66%

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