Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT PAM Mineral Tbk (NICL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$437.98 - $660.59$543.05
Multi-Stage$932.40 - $1,022.57$976.61
Blended Fair Value$759.83
Current Price$1,050.00
Upside-27.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%17.506.740.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--159.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.87%4.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)545,696.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)542,330.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,366.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109,139.4068,212.1240,927.27
Cash Retained (M)3,366.393,366.393,366.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-109,139.40-68,212.12-40,927.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)-105,773.01-64,845.74-37,560.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,635.4010,635.4010,635.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share-9.95-6.10-3.53
LTM Dividend per Share50.9950.9950.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share-9.95-6.10-3.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend41.0544.9047.46
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$437.98$543.05$660.59
Upside / Downside-58.29%-48.28%-37.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)545,696.99540,240.02534,837.61529,489.24524,194.35518,952.40534,520.98
Payout Ratio99.38%97.51%95.63%93.75%91.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)542,330.60526,769.04511,464.47496,413.32481,612.05467,057.16494,431.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)486,495.09491,459.33496,423.56
Year 2 PV (M)436,246.47445,194.88454,234.14
Year 3 PV (M)391,037.22403,130.32415,470.20
Year 4 PV (M)350,372.68364,894.00379,862.08
Year 5 PV (M)313,805.94330,146.54347,160.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,938,470.718,351,845.308,782,263.60
Equity Value (M)9,916,428.1210,386,670.3610,875,414.45
Shares Outstanding (M)10,635.4010,635.4010,635.40
Fair Value$932.40$976.61$1,022.57
Upside / Downside-11.20%-6.99%-2.61%

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