Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Neoen S.A. (NEOEN.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.73 - $174.09$163.14
Multi-Stage$28.34 - $31.08$29.68
Blended Fair Value$96.41
Current Price$39.72
Upside142.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.18%0.00%0.030.020.010.000.060.020.020.010.000.00
YoY Growth--87.10%47.62%950.00%-98.17%165.85%7.89%82.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.08%0.05%0.03%0.00%0.11%0.08%0.12%0.07%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)169.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)160.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.8421.1512.69
Cash Retained (M)160.30160.30160.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.84-21.15-12.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.46139.15147.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)192.72192.72192.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.720.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.720.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.09%6.09%6.09%
Growth Rate5.18%6.18%7.18%
Fair Value$81.73$163.14$174.09
Upside / Downside105.76%310.73%338.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)169.20179.66190.77202.57215.10228.40235.25
Payout Ratio5.26%22.21%39.16%56.10%73.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.9039.9074.70113.65157.13205.56217.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.09%6.09%6.09%
Growth Rate5.18%6.18%7.18%
Year 1 PV (M)37.2637.6137.96
Year 2 PV (M)65.1366.3767.63
Year 3 PV (M)92.5295.1997.90
Year 4 PV (M)119.44124.05128.79
Year 5 PV (M)145.90152.97160.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,002.285,244.635,496.29
Equity Value (M)5,462.535,720.825,988.88
Shares Outstanding (M)192.72192.72192.72
Fair Value$28.34$29.68$31.08
Upside / Downside-28.64%-25.27%-21.76%

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