Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Next Capital Public Company Limited (NCAP.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.47 - $5.30$4.33
Multi-Stage$7.20 - $7.94$7.56
Blended Fair Value$5.94
Current Price$3.22
Upside84.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.130.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)523.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)493.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.7465.4639.28
Cash Retained (M)493.75493.75493.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.74-65.46-39.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)389.01428.28454.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.47$4.33$5.30
Upside / Downside7.72%34.34%64.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)523.72518.48513.29508.16503.08498.05512.99
Payout Ratio5.72%22.58%39.43%56.29%73.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.97117.06202.41286.04367.97448.24474.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)108.53109.64110.75
Year 2 PV (M)173.99177.56181.16
Year 3 PV (M)227.96235.01242.21
Year 4 PV (M)271.90283.17294.79
Year 5 PV (M)307.08323.07339.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,626.689,075.909,543.63
Equity Value (M)9,716.1610,204.3510,712.26
Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
Fair Value$7.20$7.56$7.94
Upside / Downside123.51%134.74%146.43%

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