Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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National Instruments Corporation (NATI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.55 - $32.79$24.58
Multi-Stage$20.72 - $22.60$21.64
Blended Fair Value$23.11
Current Price$57.40
Upside-59.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS6.18%8.01%1.111.081.030.990.910.820.770.730.570.53
YoY Growth--3.30%4.81%3.56%8.49%10.94%6.47%5.38%28.00%9.26%2.08%
Dividend Yield--2.12%2.65%2.38%3.00%2.01%1.63%2.38%2.44%1.79%1.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)179.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)147.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.8822.4213.45
Cash Retained (M)31.6231.6231.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.88-22.42-13.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.269.1918.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)132.93132.93132.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.070.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.111.111.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.070.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Fair Value$18.55$24.58$32.79
Upside / Downside-67.68%-57.17%-42.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)179.39186.83194.57202.64211.03219.78226.37
Payout Ratio82.38%83.90%85.43%86.95%88.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)147.78156.75166.21176.19186.71197.80209.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Year 1 PV (M)142.23143.61144.99
Year 2 PV (M)136.86139.52142.21
Year 3 PV (M)131.64135.50139.44
Year 4 PV (M)126.58131.56136.69
Year 5 PV (M)121.68127.69133.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,095.492,199.062,306.69
Equity Value (M)2,754.482,876.963,003.97
Shares Outstanding (M)132.93132.93132.93
Fair Value$20.72$21.64$22.60
Upside / Downside-63.90%-62.29%-60.63%

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