Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Morguard North American Residential Real Estate Investment Trust (MRG-UN.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - ResidentialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.01 - $167.38$89.84
Multi-Stage$52.07 - $57.05$54.52
Blended Fair Value$72.18
Current Price$18.26
Upside295.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.58%4.44%0.650.650.640.640.640.570.530.510.420.42
YoY Growth---0.52%1.08%0.38%-0.36%12.96%8.17%4.22%20.72%0.05%-0.18%
Dividend Yield--3.73%4.13%3.70%3.27%4.13%4.25%2.87%3.69%2.83%3.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)68.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.0111.887.13
Cash Retained (M)68.4168.4168.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.01-11.88-7.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.4056.5261.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.4341.4341.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.191.361.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.191.361.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.842.012.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Fair Value$57.01$89.84$167.38
Upside / Downside212.20%392.03%816.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.0599.59104.34109.32114.54120.01123.61
Payout Ratio28.03%40.43%52.82%65.21%77.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.6540.2655.1171.2988.89108.01114.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Year 1 PV (M)37.2337.5937.94
Year 2 PV (M)47.1248.0348.96
Year 3 PV (M)56.3658.0159.69
Year 4 PV (M)64.9867.5370.14
Year 5 PV (M)73.0176.6080.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,878.461,970.732,066.59
Equity Value (M)2,157.172,258.482,363.64
Shares Outstanding (M)41.4341.4341.43
Fair Value$52.07$54.52$57.05
Upside / Downside185.16%198.55%212.45%

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