Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $185.51 - $452.28 | $423.85 |
| Multi-Stage | $67.46 - $73.75 | $70.55 |
| Blended Fair Value | $247.20 | |
| Current Price | $31.00 | |
| Upside | 697.42% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 17.67% | 19.11% | 1.61 | 1.66 | 1.62 | 1.06 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.54 | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -3.11% | 2.40% | 52.30% | 37.71% | 8.43% | 0.59% | 31.50% | 14.70% | 15.23% | 45.77% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.49% | 3.86% | 3.88% | 2.34% | 2.25% | 3.21% | 2.07% | 1.30% | 1.77% | 2.40% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,974.37 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,395.29 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 579.08 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 394.87 | 246.80 | 148.08 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 579.08 | 579.08 | 579.08 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -394.87 | -246.80 | -148.08 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 184.21 | 332.29 | 431.00 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 868.16 | 868.16 | 868.16 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.21 | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.61 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.21 | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.82 | 1.99 | 2.10 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.53% | 6.53% | 6.53% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $185.51 | $423.85 | $452.28 |
| Upside / Downside | 498.43% | 1,267.27% | 1,358.97% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,974.37 | 2,102.70 | 2,239.38 | 2,384.94 | 2,539.96 | 2,705.05 | 2,786.21 |
| Payout Ratio | 70.67% | 74.54% | 78.40% | 82.27% | 86.13% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,395.29 | 1,567.27 | 1,755.72 | 1,962.04 | 2,187.77 | 2,434.55 | 2,577.24 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.53% | 6.53% | 6.53% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,457.32 | 1,471.14 | 1,484.95 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,518.02 | 1,546.94 | 1,576.12 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,577.41 | 1,622.69 | 1,668.83 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,635.49 | 1,698.39 | 1,763.08 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,692.30 | 1,774.04 | 1,858.91 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 50,683.75 | 53,131.80 | 55,673.54 |
| Equity Value (M) | 58,564.30 | 61,244.99 | 64,025.43 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 868.16 | 868.16 | 868.16 |
| Fair Value | $67.46 | $70.55 | $73.75 |
| Upside / Downside | 117.61% | 127.57% | 137.90% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
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| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
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| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
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| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
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