Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Médica Sur, S.A.B. de C.V. (MEDICAB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$181.46 - $890.62$385.45
Multi-Stage$115.63 - $126.63$121.03
Blended Fair Value$253.24
Current Price$34.00
Upside644.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS161.89%32.38%1.416.1728.261.510.000.010.680.770.760.94
YoY Growth---77.08%-78.17%1,767.84%86,938.16%-84.85%-98.32%-11.14%1.75%-19.78%1,000.41%
Dividend Yield--4.16%14.87%70.85%3.15%0.01%0.07%2.44%1.93%1.94%2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)481.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)143.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)338.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.3960.2436.15
Cash Retained (M)338.51338.51338.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.39-60.24-36.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)242.12278.27302.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)106.86106.86106.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.272.602.83
LTM Dividend per Share1.341.341.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.272.602.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.613.954.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate4.75%5.75%6.75%
Fair Value$181.46$385.45$890.62
Upside / Downside433.72%1,033.69%2,519.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)481.94509.63538.91569.87602.61637.24656.36
Payout Ratio29.76%41.81%53.86%65.90%77.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)143.43213.07290.24375.57469.75573.51607.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate4.75%5.75%6.75%
Year 1 PV (M)197.56199.45201.33
Year 2 PV (M)249.53254.32259.15
Year 3 PV (M)299.40308.06316.88
Year 4 PV (M)347.23360.68374.52
Year 5 PV (M)393.08412.21432.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,869.9911,398.8711,948.13
Equity Value (M)12,356.8012,933.5813,532.09
Shares Outstanding (M)106.86106.86106.86
Fair Value$115.63$121.03$126.63
Upside / Downside240.10%255.98%272.45%

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