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Definitive Analysis

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M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (MDC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.51 - $4.61$4.09
Multi-Stage$6.87 - $7.56$7.21
Blended Fair Value$5.65
Current Price$62.98
Upside-91.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.12%9.76%1.622.031.861.551.160.960.890.680.640.64
YoY Growth---20.20%9.00%20.15%33.17%21.73%7.97%30.49%5.72%0.45%0.10%
Dividend Yield--2.57%3.22%4.79%4.10%1.96%4.45%3.29%2.63%2.49%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.769.225.53
Cash Retained (M)32.5132.5132.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.76-9.22-5.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.7523.2926.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)76.4676.4676.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.300.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.300.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate10.04%10.04%10.04%
Growth Rate-9.80%-8.80%-7.80%
Fair Value$3.51$4.09$4.61
Upside / Downside-94.43%-93.51%-92.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.7967.2961.3755.9751.0546.5647.95
Payout Ratio55.94%62.75%69.56%76.38%83.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.2842.2342.6942.7542.4741.9044.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.04%10.04%10.04%
Growth Rate-9.80%-8.80%-7.80%
Year 1 PV (M)37.9538.3838.80
Year 2 PV (M)34.4935.2636.04
Year 3 PV (M)31.0432.0833.15
Year 4 PV (M)27.7128.9630.25
Year 5 PV (M)24.5825.9727.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)369.57390.51412.40
Equity Value (M)525.34551.17578.06
Shares Outstanding (M)76.4676.4676.46
Fair Value$6.87$7.21$7.56
Upside / Downside-89.09%-88.55%-88.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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