Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Kion Group AG (KGX.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.88 - $334.30$118.08
Multi-Stage$63.06 - $69.16$66.05
Blended Fair Value$92.07
Current Price$57.45
Upside60.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.29%10.28%0.700.191.500.410.041.080.890.660.580.41
YoY Growth--268.67%-87.34%266.29%1,042.55%-96.68%21.15%34.41%14.34%39.96%57.39%
Dividend Yield--1.83%0.39%4.21%0.68%0.04%2.76%1.82%0.88%0.95%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)107.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)164.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.3633.9820.39
Cash Retained (M)164.30164.30164.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.36-33.98-20.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)109.94130.33143.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)131.11131.11131.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.840.991.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.820.820.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.840.991.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.811.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.09%6.09%6.09%
Growth Rate3.49%4.49%5.49%
Fair Value$65.88$118.08$334.30
Upside / Downside14.68%105.54%481.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.80284.00296.74310.06323.98338.52348.67
Payout Ratio39.55%49.64%59.73%69.82%79.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)107.50140.98177.25216.49258.89304.67322.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.09%6.09%6.09%
Growth Rate3.49%4.49%5.49%
Year 1 PV (M)131.61132.88134.15
Year 2 PV (M)154.47157.47160.50
Year 3 PV (M)176.13181.29186.54
Year 4 PV (M)196.64204.35212.28
Year 5 PV (M)216.03226.67237.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,393.527,757.718,136.11
Equity Value (M)8,268.408,660.379,067.32
Shares Outstanding (M)131.11131.11131.11
Fair Value$63.06$66.05$69.16
Upside / Downside9.77%14.97%20.38%

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