Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $606.51 - $1,991.27 | $985.71 |
| Multi-Stage | $629.03 - $688.36 | $658.14 |
| Blended Fair Value | $821.93 | |
| Current Price | $184.56 | |
| Upside | 345.34% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 5.39% | 13.75% | 14.00 | 13.96 | 12.10 | 8.14 | 8.16 | 10.77 | 6.18 | 4.74 | 4.12 | 4.12 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.23% | 15.44% | 48.55% | -0.18% | -24.24% | 74.25% | 30.42% | 15.05% | 0.00% | 6.70% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.87% | 3.50% | 2.54% | 1.15% | 1.37% | 1.84% | 1.50% | 1.23% | 1.93% | 2.61% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,805.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,452.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 353.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 561.00 | 350.63 | 210.38 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 353.00 | 353.00 | 353.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -561.00 | -350.63 | -210.38 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -208.00 | 2.38 | 142.63 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 122.60 | 122.60 | 122.60 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -1.70 | 0.02 | 1.16 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 20.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -1.70 | 0.02 | 1.16 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 18.30 | 20.02 | 21.16 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.51% | 6.51% | 6.51% |
| Growth Rate | 3.39% | 4.39% | 5.39% |
| Fair Value | $606.51 | $985.71 | $1,991.27 |
| Upside / Downside | 228.62% | 434.09% | 978.93% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,805.00 | 2,928.02 | 3,056.44 | 3,190.49 | 3,330.42 | 3,476.48 | 3,580.78 |
| Payout Ratio | 87.42% | 87.93% | 88.45% | 88.97% | 89.48% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,452.00 | 2,574.68 | 2,703.40 | 2,838.45 | 2,980.16 | 3,128.83 | 3,312.22 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.51% | 6.51% | 6.51% |
| Growth Rate | 3.39% | 4.39% | 5.39% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,394.24 | 2,417.40 | 2,440.56 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,337.77 | 2,383.21 | 2,429.09 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2,282.55 | 2,349.42 | 2,417.59 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,228.55 | 2,316.04 | 2,406.07 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,175.77 | 2,283.05 | 2,394.52 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 65,698.11 | 68,937.50 | 72,303.43 |
| Equity Value (M) | 77,116.99 | 80,686.62 | 84,391.26 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 122.60 | 122.60 | 122.60 |
| Fair Value | $629.03 | $658.14 | $688.36 |
| Upside / Downside | 240.82% | 256.60% | 272.97% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
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| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
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| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
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